Sunday, February 21, 2010

CPAC2010 Brings out the Heavyweights for a major 2010/2012 Pep Rally

Anybody But Barack Obama (ABBO) 2012 - Top 10
An American Poll of One, influenced by millions‘:

The Evan Bayh announcement and CPAC10 have gone a long way to justify this ABBO Top 10. With Senator Bayh and SOSOTUS Hillary Clinton now in the potential field, Barack Obama will make what I hope will be a quiet end to a failed Presidency.

Also big in this week’s Political News was the CPAC 2012 Candidate Straw Poll. It’s results and reasoning dominate this ABBO2012 Top 10. The results of the CPAC Straw Poll are as follows:

2010 CPAC Straw Poll Results
Ron Paul 31%
Mitt Romney 22%
Sarah Palin 7%
Tim Pawlenty 6%
Mike Pence 5%
Newt Gingrich 4%
Mike Huckabee 4%
Mitch Daniels 2%
John Thune 2%
Rick Santorum 2%
Haley Barbour 1%

<“What they’re saying about the 2010 CPAC ‘2012’ Straw Poll“>
Ron Paul, who ran for president in 2008, took 31 percent of the vote. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney had won the past three CPAC straw polls but placed second this time with 22 percent. Romney is considered the current frontrunner for the 2012 nod.

Be careful not to read too much -- or much at all -- into these results. Paul's supporters are loyal and loud but not, ultimately, that large a group as proven by the fact that he did not win a single primary or caucus in 2008. {TheFix By Chris Cillizza | February 20, 2010; 5:42 PM ET}

The 2012 Presidential Campaign Started This Weekend, And Ron Paul Is In The Lead
{Joe Weisenthal | Feb. 21, 2010, 10:40 AM}

One reason for the Paul win is the make up of the CPAC attendees. CPAC caters to students and young conservative activists. And Paul's appeal has been strongest among young, vocal, activist Libertarians. {From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro}

Paul got 31% of the vote, which means he literally performed an abortion murder on Mitt Romney, who usually wins these things because he’s such an asshole — Romney finished with 22%, proving once again that he can’t even get a fourth of the room to like him, even when that room is exclusively filled with Republicans.
But the “world’s biggest loser” of the night was truly our Alaskan Quitter Bear, the Facebook user Sarah Palin. Nobody likes her at all! She ended up with a patriotic “screw you” of 7%, but at least that was better than unloved has-beens Pawlenty (6%) and Gingrich (4%) and Huckabee (4%). {Wonkette THE DC GOSSIP; Ron Paul WINS CPAC STRAW POLL, HA HA 2/20/10}

To jeers and cheers, Ron Paul wins straw poll at CPAC {Ralph Z. Hallow The Washington Times Sunday, Feb. 21, 2010}
<“What they’re saying about the 2010 CPAC ‘2012’ Straw Poll“>

Having been a Conservative all of my life but a Republican for a very short 16 months, I am amused and intrigued by the level of sophistication and superstition exhibited by my new party. The winner of the CPAC Straw Poll for three straight years, Mitt Romney, loses to Ron Paul who was a complete afterthought in the 2008 Republican Presidential Primary.

The notion that for three straight years Romney had the support of collegiate CPACers and that Ron Paul is suddenly the overwhelming choice of Young Republicans is laughable. Mitt Romney supporters cast numerous ballots for Paul to make sure that a candidate with no chance of beating their guy in 2012 finished on top. Call it sophistication or superstition, clearly the Republicans are energized by all that was accomplished during CPAC and have much to build on for 2010 and 2012.

I was a little surprised that there were five names included in the poll that hadn’t reached the ABBO2012 Top 10 radar previously. Mike Pence, Mitch Daniels, John Thune, Rich Santorum and Haley Barbour are now listed under Honorable Mention. In the coming weeks, they will likely become more prominent.

I was also a little surprised to see Sarah Palin receive such little support by the participants at CPAC. Could it be that she is a one trick pony with the Tea Party crowd or is the CPAC crowd a bit more high brow? She didn’t show up in D.C. and I’m sure no one told her not to come so there’s likely a story there that we’ll know in due time.

A comparison of the ABBO2012 Top 10 and the CPAC 2012 Straw Poll reveals a wide open field of potential 2012 Candidates for President that includes 22 players - two of whom happen to be Democrats.

Anybody But Barack Obama (ABBO) 2012 - Top 10
‘An American Poll of One, influenced by millions‘:

1 Scott Brown

Made a good showing at CPAC10 but looked less prominent when other Republican Stars were assembled. I like Scott Brown atop this ABBO Top 10 for now!

Summary As of 2/14/10
Not much has happened to change my mind about Scott Brown. If he were pitted head-to-head against Barack Hussein Obama today - Senator Scott Brown (R-MA) defeats the sitting President and by a wide margin. His having been sworn in has taken some of the luster from his aura but he’s still in possession of the “it” that would allow him to overtake Mr. Obama.

American Politics is a complicated mechanism. It is possible but not probable that Senator Brown would be the Republican Nominee. That said - the field or one among them must try to overtake the relevant star power of the Junior Senator from Massachusetts.

2 Colin Luther Powell

Mr. Powell’s place in this field should diminish as the pack begins to assemble itself more formally. Having his name still on top is a testament to his having been an ideal Presidential Candidate before and a far more qualified than Barack Obama will ever be in this life.

Summary As of 2/14/10
In my view, Colin Powell’s hold on the number 2 position in this candidate ranking is the same reason that Senator Scott Brown remains in the top position. His is a name I advance for debate with all takers who oppose the prospect of a Powell candidacy versus Barack Obama.

Whether it’s a spirited debate in a neighborhood barbershop about the appropriateness of two American Black Men running against each other or in the line at the Post Office where taxes and two wars are more prevalent issues, Colin Powell is a highly respected presidential prospect.

3 Sarah Palin

More of the same this week. Point, counterpoint. Action, reaction. This pattern will plague Governor Palin as long as she has to take time from her agenda to chastise the insensitive and cruel mockery of her son Trig or anything else that is slight of the Palin’s.

Over time, especially if persistent insults can’t be ignored, Ms. Palin will grow weary of the attacks. She seems like a decent enough person but certainly not brass knuckles hard like a Rudy Giuliani. I still have high hopes for Mrs. Palin.

We were disappointed that she did not make an appearance at CPAC10 especially since she manages to make it everywhere else.
[Sarah Palin 7% 2010 CPAC ‘2012’ Straw Poll]

Summary As of 2/14/10
The thing that really bothers me about Sarah Palin is that her sense of right and wrong may be wrong for the Presidency. Not that there’s anything wrong with her sense of right and wrong. I am certainly not suggesting that. What I am saying is that in my view, a President must be able to do what he/she feels is right for the country while putting personal feelings aside. Sarah Palin made a ‘personal’ decision to benefit Alaskans by quitting. Who benefited the most from Governor Palin’s personal decision?

Another nagging concern about Sarah Palin is that she has what could be considered a challenging family dynamic that needs her attention. Is she prepared to sacrifice family time to assume the responsibility of the Presidency. My guess is that Sarah Palin believes that she could shape the Presidency around her family and its needs. The problem with that is that the United States is not Alaska and the American people will not be nearly as accommodating of the Palins as Sarah Palin might insist. Executive involvement from the ‘First Dude’ was cute in Alaska but the whole homespun ‘this is how we do it in Alaska’ routine won’t play at all at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. NW.

To my friends in the ‘Tea Party’ Movement, please stop accusing me of Palin bashing. If anything, I’m trying to honestly represent view points that will become more prevalent in the weeks and months to come. I honestly think we can elect a more qualified President than Sarah Palin but while those candidates find their swagger, the former Governor of the State of Alaska holds down the number three spot in this weeks Top 10 ABBO list.

4 Mitt Romney

Quite a splash for the Governor at CPAC. Several mighty fine one liners made him a big hit.
[Mitt Romney 22% 2010 CPAC ‘2012’ Straw Poll]

Summary As of 2/14/10
No noteworthy mentions in the news this week.

5 Newt Gingrich

It is interesting that Gingrich is entrenched in the middle of this pack. Even among likely Republican Candidates (Scott Brown and Colin Luther Powell not withstanding) he is easily among the top three viable candidates at this point.
[Newt Gingrich 4% 2010 CPAC ‘2012’ Straw Poll]

Summary As of 2/14/10
Aside from his routine appearances on Fox News, the former SOTHOR was little more than a political commentator which is not bad work if you can get it. Does it lay a framework for a future run at the White House? Probably not. Don’t expect Newt’s bid to stay airborne if it gets off the ground. He holds the five spot because he’s a former Speaker and when you’ve been two (2) heartbeats from the Presidency you get certain accommodations.

6 Tim Pawlenty (Gov. MN)

“I am already pretty sick of Pawlenty. Secretly (okay not to secretly now) hoping that he doesn't run for POTUS.” {One prominent twitterer}

“TPaw” may not have national juice just yet. It is important to keep in that every Presidential Ticket consist of a top banana and 2nd fiddle. “TPaw” has the look of a good 2nd fiddle.
[Tim Pawlenty 6% 2010 CPAC ‘2012’ Straw Poll]

Summary As of 2/14/10
The Governor moves up one spot to number six as Mike Huckabee stock took an expected tumble this week.

2/2 tweet
Tim Pawlenty's quote "Ponzi Scheme on the Potomac" good enough 4 spot N the #ABBO 2012 Top 10

7 Paul Ryan

This is Paul Ryan’s week! POTUS44’s Healthcare Reform Summit dog and pony show will be Ryan’s best chance to show that he belongs on the national stage. He is considered the Republican’s best spokesperson on the issue of Healthcare Reform and hopefully we’ll have an opportunity to see what he brings to the table.

Summary As of 2/14/10
I know who Paul Ryan is now! This week he was singled out as the one Republican that should speak for the Republican delegation to the President’s latest ‘dog and pony show’ on healthcare reform later this month. That’s a clear indication he deserves a seat at the table of potential Obama replacements.

8 Mike Huckabee

The Huckabee interview with Michelle Obama on childhood obesity replayed a half dozen times over the weekend as though FoxNews was under some misguided notion that viewers would want to see doughboy and dippity doo over and over again. Mike Huckabee becomes less appealing as a candidate as time passes. This is undoubtedly Huckabee’s final week of relevance in the ABBO2012.
[Mike Huckabee 4% 2010 CPAC ‘2012’ Straw Poll]

Summary As of 2/14/10
No real change for the Host. My guess is that he’ll hang around these bottom three spots for the next few week or maybe months and then slip quietly under the radar.

9 Evan Bayh

Quite simply, the earth should have moved under Barack Obama’s feet regardless of where he was at the time of Evan Bayh’s call to the White House announcing his plan to ‘retire’ from the US Senate while holding a double digit lead in his re-election bid. He is getting away from Obama and his Administration as though he and it are some type of contagious disease. LMAO. Somehow H1N1 comes to mind.

The Dems, across the board, are in total and complete free-fall in part because Barack Obama is failing to deliver the brilliance that was promised. The fact is that 44’s not so smart and not so creative either. This is the reason that the politician that hopes to have a political tomorrow is abandoning Obama now. With this being a smart move, Bayh will be in position to step up and challenge Hillary Clinton if 44 pull a Lyndon Johnson.

10 Hillary Clinton

Looked rested and in total control of her duties abroad as SOSOTUS this week. A rested Hillary and a failure weary Barack Obama. I’d be sleeping with one eye open for a whole lot of reasons if I was 44. At the top of the list of concerns for the POTUS could be a sudden resignation from Mrs. Clinton. LMAO… Obama’s hair would gray overnight.

Summary as of 1/14/10
It became apparent that this tenth and final spot needed to held by one person that took Obama to the wire and could count on 18 million primary votes tomorrow. Barack Obama might not be able to get 18 million votes in a national election held tomorrow.
It all made sense. One person that could beat Barack Obama is Hillary Clinton.
18 million Democrats didn’t get it wrong.

A hand full of second rate sheep herders gave us Barack Obama - that and his galactic sized ego. This is what has nagged at me for the last several days. I have purposely not had much to Tweet and have not posted to any one of 5 blogs. My mojo was in suspended animation. Part of my inner conflict and confusion was the result of an up tick in Democrats and Liberals following on twitter and email comments and critiques on the Top 10. It made remember that I was once a Closet Conservative Democrat (#ccd).

Suddenly I felt a reluctance to attack all things liberal or Democratic because some of those being attacked are people that I still like and respect regardless of their political leanings. There’s no way that I can stop sounding the alarm that Barack Obama is not who he portends to be but I can go a tad easier on his followers. They can’t help that he’s in over his head nor is it really their fault.

With that moment of nostalgia behind me, it’s time to get to the heart of why SOSOTUS Clinton is rightly included in this Top 10 and why I have my liberal friends and former Democratic Party Mates to thank. You may want to sit down for this or at least have some smelling salts near by…

With all his brilliance, star power, extraordinary abilities and the needs of the people as his motivation, Barack Hussein Obama is still just an over-hyped quitter. Every situation that he boasts having mastered on his way to the White House was really a situation he quit after realizing he wasn’t going to get to do things the way he wanted. He can’t transform America as he set out to and now the American Electorate has clipped his wings. Don’t be surprised at his brilliant and noble gesture to step aside in 2012 having “saved the country from another Great Depression” and fighting - unsuccessfully - for healthcare reform for the American people.

Obama’s being a quitter by nature is what opens the door for Hillary Clinton in 2012. She is certainly no more a long shot than Robert Gates or General Patreus and having ran so well before could give her the nomination if 44 were to not seek re-election. The nation could see the ’Dream Presidential Election of 2012” with Sarah Palin taking on Hillary Rodham Clinton. I get goose bumps just thinking about those potential debates. This could be a bloggers dream come true.

Mrs. Clinton has said that she is definitely not running but as the water gets deeper and hotter around Mr. Obama, look for him to seek an honorable and profitable way out of the situation he finds himself in - the American people be-damned.

Honorable Mention:
Mike Pence ["This may be my most favorite speech yet," said the blog The Right Scoop. "Mike Pence is my pick in 2012 should he run. He has been on of the most consistent conservatives and he gets it." Posted by Kelley Beaucar Vlahos ]
[Mike Pence 5% 2010 CPAC ‘2012’ Straw Poll]
9 Rudy Giuliani - I was almost sorry to see Rudy get bumped from the Top 10 contenders so quickly but the Evan Bayh dynamic is unmistakable this week.
Mitch Daniels [2% 2010 CPAC ‘2012’ Straw Poll]
John Thune [2% 2010 CPAC ‘2012’ Straw Poll]
Rick Santorum [2% 2010 CPAC ‘2012’ Straw Poll]
Haley Barbour [1% 2010 CPAC ‘2012’ Straw Poll]
Bobby Jindal
Ron Paul
Robert Gates
Michael Bloomberg
Jenny Ryan
General David Patreus

Someone that should have make this list did not and I am sure I’ll hear about it.
Check back on Sunday nights just after midnight for updates.
Follow me and the running commentary on twitter @ Solly_Forell or contact me directly at

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